Natural gas price rebound drove U.S.-Canada gas and electricity trade value higher in 2025, even as total energy trade fell 11%

The total value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137 billion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by the Energy Information Administration^[1] - yet within that decline, natural gas and electricity moved in the opposite direction. Trade value in both commodities rose slightly, driven primarily by a rebound in natural gas prices and a modest increase in cross-border volumes^[1].

The EIA published the finding on 6 August 2026 as part of a two-part analysis of bilateral energy flows.

The price effect dominated

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.52/MMBtu in 2025, a 56% increase from the 2024 annual average, which - adjusted for inflation - had been the lowest on record. That price recovery was the main lever behind the jump in trade values.

U.S. natural gas imports from Canada averaged 8.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, 1% higher than in 2024, while the value of those imports rose 52% year-on-year^[1]. The volume increase was marginal; the value increase was almost entirely a price story.

Exports moved similarly. The volume of U.S. natural gas exports to Canada rose 4% in 2025 to an average of 2.8 Bcf/d, while the value of those exports increased 77% to $2.6 billion^[1]. Most of the gas in both directions moves by pipeline, with Canadian imports arriving predominantly at the western and central border crossings and U.S. exports flowing mainly from northeastern states into Ontario^[1].

Despite the value gains, natural gas remained a relatively small share of the overall bilateral energy relationship - accounting for roughly 8% of total U.S.-Canada energy trade value in 2025^[1]. The headline decline in total trade was driven by lower crude oil prices, which weigh heavily on the $111 billion in Canadian energy exports to the United States.

Electricity: small in dollar terms, structurally important

Electricity trade between the two countries totaled $3.2 billion in 2025, with Canadian exports to the United States accounting for 67% of that value^[1]. The dollar figure is modest relative to oil and gas, but the flows matter for grid balancing across interconnected regions - particularly in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, where cross-border capacity is a routine reliability tool.

The EIA noted that the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) transmission line has the potential to increase U.S. electricity imports from Canada going forward^[1]. The 145-mile, 1,200 MW high-voltage direct-current line from the Quebec border to Lewiston, Maine - built by Avangrid and Hydro-Québec - entered commercial operation on 16 January 2026. Early utilisation data through mid-2026 have been uneven, with roughly 27 days of zero flow recorded in the first six months of operation, raising questions about the net addition to regional supply.

Tariff backdrop

Canada's energy exports to the United States became subject to a 10% tariff as of 6 March 2025, though subsequent White House actions exempted certain energy trade categories^[1]. The EIA analysis does not attribute the volume changes directly to tariff effects, and the 1% rise in Canadian gas import volumes suggests the tariff did not materially suppress flows in 2025.

The broader 11% decline in total bilateral energy trade value reflects lower crude oil prices rather than a structural shift in physical flows. With Henry Hub prices expected to remain in the $3.50-$3.60/MMBtu range through 2026 and 2027 according to EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, the price tailwind that lifted gas trade values in 2025 is likely to persist at a more moderate level - though it will not be enough to offset crude-driven swings in the headline bilateral figure.

The next data point to watch is whether NECEC utilisation rates normalise through the second half of 2026 - and whether Hydro-Québec's deliveries on the new line come at the expense of flows on existing interconnections, which would limit the net electricity trade impact the EIA flagged as a forward risk.